As 2025 starts, three key environmental trends are emerging in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

First, there’s an expected shift from large-scale tree planting to more ecologically appropriate desert ecosystem restoration, focusing on native landscapes like salt marshes and mangrove forests.

Second, urban greening initiatives in GCC cities are anticipated to outperform rural afforestation efforts, with innovative urban forestry techniques showing higher survival rates and carbon sequestration potential.

Lastly, GCC countries are predicted to pivot towards planting genetically modified, heat-resistant plant varieties, which are expected to demonstrate superior resilience and carbon sequestration capabilities in the harsh desert climate.

These trends signal a move towards more sustainable and effective environmental practices in the region.

1. Shift from Tree Planting to Desert Ecosystem Restoration

By 2025, GCC countries will pivot away from large-scale tree planting initiatives towards more ecologically appropriate desert ecosystem restoration projects.

Saudi Arabia has an ambitious goal to plant 10 billion trees. Policymakers will recognize that mass afforestation in arid regions is not sustainable. They will also see it is not a long term effective solution for carbon sequestration. Instead, they will focus on restoring native desert landscapes. This includes salt marshes and mangrove forests, which are better suited to the local climate. These landscapes are more efficient at capturing carbon.

Our take: large scale planting will continue due to political momentum and public visibility (e.g., Saudi Green Initiative, Middle East Green Initiative). There are many benefits to tree planting beyond carbon reduction. These include reducing dust storms, enhancing air quality, cooling, and supporting agriculture (see Medellin and Curitiba experience).

2. Urban Green Spaces Outperform Rural Afforestation

Urban greening initiatives in GCC cities will exceed expectations. They will be more successful and impactful than rural afforestation efforts. Cities like Riyadh will see a significant increase in green spaces. Innovative urban forestry techniques will thrive in the urban environment. Climate-adaptive plant species will also thrive there. These urban forests will show higher survival rates. They will have greater carbon sequestration potential than large-scale tree planting in remote areas. This success will lead to a reallocation of resources towards city-based nature solutions.

Our take: rural afforestation efforts will continue to be necessary to reduce desertification. Urban greening initiatives face spacing constraints, soil compactation and sometimes pollution which hinders its success. The carbon sequestration potential in urban areas is limited vs. rural or coastal projects.

3. Heat-Resistant GMOs Outperform Native Species

By 2025, GCC countries will pivot from planting traditional tree species to genetically modified, heat-resistant varieties. These engineered plants will show superior survival rates and carbon sequestration capabilities in the harsh desert climate. This shift will spark debate. It will ultimately accelerate afforestation efforts. These GMOs prove more resilient to extreme temperatures and water scarcity than native or imported species.

Our take: as mentioned before, introducing GMOs needs to overcome public and regulatory concerns. These concerns involve possible environmental harm, including effects on biodiversity. Native species are already adapted to local conditions and should prove more resilient in the long term.